There is a shortage of women for 50 million Chinese – it will improve after 2040 – in China, the man pays the dowry
Birth control has been in place in China since 1949 and since 1980, the one-child policy has been in place until 2015 (on request) or 2021 (3 children under certain conditions). Due to the reduction in the number of children through abortions, people preferred boys over girls, which led to and continues to lead to a significant gender imbalance. In China, 112 boys were born per 100 girls in 2021. Since 2022, statistics from China have been showing the standard world ratio of 1.05 boys per 1 girl (20/19). Birth control has therefore probably persisted at least in rural areas until 2021. The 11/10 ratio means that many Chinese men do not have a wife. In reality, the problem is greater because older, wealthier Chinese, due to the shortage in their age group, have to target the younger group. In the 20-30s, there can be, for example, 2 free women for 3 or more free men.
So the peak of single men in China is now 2020 – 2040. Then the imbalance in the marriage market (age 20-49) will gradually decrease and level out until 2060. BBC Even the New York Times reported 30 million Chinese without wives for 2025. But that number is significantly lower than reality. In China, men enter into relationships and marriages much later, and the marriage market includes not only the age group of 20-40 years, but also 40-50 years. This is neglected in the generally stated difference of 35 million.
In China, there are currently 300.5 million men and 245.8 million women aged 20-49 in 2026 (in more detail by age according to Statisticstimes.com). That is, a difference of 45 million Chinese people by gender on the marriage market. It is also necessary to calculate that older men marry younger women. This is also the case in Europe and the USA, but in China it is exacerbated by the higher shortage of women. That is, in this period at the peak of inequality and a few years later, even younger women cannot compensate for older men and the debt will be permanent for current men. In the 50-59 year old group in China, there are 114 million men and 113 million women. Meanwhile, women after the age of 50 worldwide are already more likely to remain single. That is, they often do not look for another relationship, when the husband usually dies earlier (men worldwide die younger than women and, in addition, the older ones are married). This historical debt of older age groups over 50 The gender gap increases to 50 million Chinese, according to a conservative estimate aged 20-49 with no statistical hope of a wife or long-term girlfriend (i.e. at least every 6th Chinese man on the marriage market from the relevant group of 300 million). Not because Chinese women are single, but there is such a large difference in the population at the age when people are still looking for a partner. In China, men also start looking later (after the age of 40), because when they were young they did not have the money or women for it. We are not counting the additional distortion to the detriment of gender balance. Under these circumstances, for example, it is worthwhile for many Chinese women to remain single and receive gifts or rent themselves out for dating for up to 1400 USD per day, as he writes BBC.
Gender inequality in China is also present in the older age group of 50-54 and is only comparable in the group of 55-59 (while in Europe or the USA it is already around the age of 50). If we also include those over 50 who have come to terms with the fact that they have not had and will not have a permanent partner, we have a number of easily 70 million Chinese men who are single. This corresponds to 15.7% of the male population in China aged 20-80 (460 million men are aged 20-80 out of a total of 718 million men in China). I.e. Independent verification once again shows that every sixth Chinese man has no statistical hope of finding a wife in the coming years. I think that in this situation, only a small percentage of women will remain single for all or most of their adult lives, so the real result will not be that much worse than it was according to the proportion of single women in the West. This would correspond to the average birth rate in China of 1.16 boys per girl 1980-2015.
This causes social tension, because a lot of Chinese men will never have a wife (see below). On the other hand, there is also a certain natural selection. A Chinese man pays a dowry to the wife of the family of 12,000 (rural) - 40,000 Euros (city). Usually the man must also bring an apartment to the marriage worth 120,000 - 600,000 Euros.
Polyandry (multiple men for one woman) was accepted in China in the 18th and 19th centuries, but Qz.com they talk about it in connection with poverty and the need to get another breadwinner into the family and not in connection with the lack of women. But apparently they were connected vessels. Polyandry was abolished in 1950 in Tibet and is illegal in China. It is not seriously discussed or considered.
The difference, apparently according to statistical data – the gender of the population above – is not compensated by the import of wives, for example, from Russia or Southeast Asia. The import of wives is even more expensive and probably negligible, but without them the gender difference would be even higher. Moreover, China is not a completely popular destination for immigrants, apart from North Korea, Mongolia and the Russian borderlands. Due to a certain cultural rigidity, discipline, work pace, less protection of cheap labor, but also tense territorial relations in the China Sea. Some conditions and social acceptance will improve for foreign wives as a result of social pressure. It is not clear whether this will lead to a significant increase in foreign wives in China in the most critical next 20 years.
It is very difficult to obtain data on young men in China 21-30 without a girlfriend (single). Statista.com reports 42.6% young people 21-30 years old in China are single. In countries with a normal sex ratio, there are about 1/2 as many young men as young women who are single (women enter relationships younger). In China, the ratio of young single men to women will be at least double. Let's assume a conservative low ratio of single young women in China of only 19% aged 21-30 (versus about 25% singles girls in the Czech Republic or the USA). Because young Chinese women are much more wanted at a young age than women in the West due to the unavailability of women in China. Then the proportion of single young men in China would be estimated at 60%. That is, according to a conservative estimate 3 out of 5 young Chinese aged 21-30 years they don't have a girlfriend. In this situation, even many young men can and some statistically eventually have to give up. For comparison of countries with normal sex ratios – article 40% young of men in the USA and the Czech Republic are single.
Under these circumstances, one would expect a preference for daughters. UNFPA study The slight preference for daughters in China since 2017 is confirmed together with the preference for gender balance and is also linked to the improvement in the position of women in Chinese society – education, professions, rights. However, the preference may not correspond to the actual birth rate. As mentioned above, even in 2022, boys will predominate in China at a ratio of 1.05 (i.e. as a global average). Therefore, China will face fundamental social changes around 2040 – 2060, when the gender balance will return from a male predominance to the global norm. The question is whether in the period 2026 – 2035 more girls will be born in China than the global average of 1.05 boys per girl. This would make economic and social sense.
Despite all the freedom of parents, controlling the sex of the desired child (mini-abortions) is an ethical issue for a liberal person. However, if the historical gender imbalance is temporarily balanced, it is certainly more acceptable than if it is created over the long term. If Chinese couples currently prefer a girl, then abortion of a boy can be imagined as morally defensible and in harmony with nature under the current circumstances.
